Chapter 8
Watson-Glaser Inference Questions
(With Practice questions similar to Watson Glaser test : Watson-Glaser test prep guide)
By A S Prasad, Critical Thinking Academy
The Watson-Glaser Inference section asks you to judge whether an inference follows from a short passage. For each item you must choose one of five fixed responses: True, Probably True, Insufficient Data, Probably False, or False.
This section uniquely combines both deductive and inductive reasoning. Your task is to judge how strongly the passage supports each inference — with absolute certainty, reasonable likelihood, or not at all.
The five options form a scale:
True — Probably True — Insufficient Data — Probably False — False
Think of Insufficient Data as the neutral midpoint, with degrees of support on one side and degrees of contradiction on the other.
A Closer Look at the Five Options
Act like a judge evaluating evidence. For each inference, decide how strongly it is supported by the facts in the passage.
1. TRUE — The "Beyond All Doubt" Verdict
The statement is a 100% guaranteed, logical certainty based only on the passage. This is pure deduction.
Passage: "The finance department, which has ten employees, confirmed that every employee has now completed the mandatory compliance training."
Inference: "At least some employees in the finance department have completed the mandatory compliance training."
Answer: True
If "every employee" (all ten) completed the training, it is a 100% logical certainty that "at least some" of them did. It is impossible for the passage to be true and the inference to be false.
2. PROBABLY TRUE — Strong Evidence, Not Certainty
The passage provides reasonable grounds for the inference but does not guarantee it. The inference is more likely true than false, but some room for doubt remains.
Passage: "The company's sales rose in the same year that advertising spending doubled."
Inference: "The sales rise was probably linked to the increase in advertising."
Answer: Probably True
The timing suggests a likely link, but the passage does not rule out other possible causes. The connection is plausible, not proven.
3. INSUFFICIENT DATA — The Passage Is Silent
The passage provides no relevant information to support or contradict the inference. Any conclusion would be a guess. This is perhaps the most important option to understand — and the most commonly misused.
Passage: "The finance department confirmed that every employee has completed the mandatory compliance training."
Inference: "The compliance training was effective in preventing rule violations."
Answer: Insufficient Data
The passage only states that training was completed. It provides zero information about the training's effectiveness or what happened afterwards. Any conclusion about effectiveness would be a complete guess.
4. PROBABLY FALSE — Evidence Points Against It
The evidence in the passage strongly suggests the inference is unlikely, but does not provide a direct, 100% contradiction.
Passage: "Jane is the company's most decorated salesperson, having won the 'Top Performer' award for five consecutive years. She is known throughout the company for her preparation before client meetings."
Inference: "Jane arrived at the largest client meeting of the year without any of her usual preparation."
Answer: Probably False
The inference describes behaviour highly inconsistent with Jane's strong, consistent reputation. But the passage does not explicitly state she prepares for all meetings — so we cannot be 100% certain. The action described is highly improbable, not impossible.
5. FALSE — Direct Contradiction
The inference is impossible if the information in the passage is true. The passage directly and explicitly contradicts the inference. This is a high bar — the contradiction must be explicit, not merely implied.
Passage: "Jane follows a strict personal rule: she prepares a detailed strategy brief for all of her client meetings, without exception."
Inference: "For the client meeting on Tuesday, Jane did not prepare a strategy brief."
Answer: False
The passage states an absolute rule — "all" meetings, "without exception." The inference directly contradicts this. There is no room for doubt. If the passage is true, the inference must be false.
How to Choose Between the Five Options
● Does the passage explicitly state what the inference claims? → True
● Does the passage explicitly contradict it? → False
● Does the passage make the inference more likely than not? → Probably True
● Does the passage make the inference unlikely but not impossible? → Probably False
● Does the passage give no clear leaning either way? → Insufficient Data
Quick checklist for Watson-Glaser exam conditions: Does the passage explicitly state the fact in the inference? → True. Does it explicitly contradict it? → False. Does it make the inference more likely than not? → Probably True. Does it make it unlikely? → Probably False. No clear leaning? → Insufficient Data.
Worked Examples
Example 1 — Clear Numeric Support
Passage: "In a study of 1,000 customers, 700 said they prefer online shopping to in-store shopping."
Inference: "A majority of surveyed customers prefer online shopping."
Answer: True
700 of 1,000 customers (70%) preferred online shopping. This directly supports the inference without qualification.
Example 2 — Scope Overreach
Passage: "In a study of 1,000 customers, 700 said they prefer online shopping to in-store shopping."
Inference: "Most people in the country prefer online shopping."
Answer: Insufficient Data
The passage refers only to the surveyed customers. There is no information about the wider population. Generalising beyond the sample is unsupported.
Example 3 — Probable Link, Not Certain
Passage: "The company's sales rose in the same year that advertising spending doubled."
Inference: "The sales rise was probably linked to the increase in advertising."
Answer: Probably True
The timing suggests a likely link, but the passage does not rule out other possible causes. The connection is plausible, not proven.
Example 4 — Coincidence, Not Causation
Passage: "Profits rose after a new manager was appointed."
Inference: "The new manager caused profits to rise."
Answer: Insufficient Data
Sequence alone does not establish causation. The passage gives no evidence of mechanism or of other factors being ruled out.
Example 5 — Strong Negative Evidence
Passage: "Out of 500 surveyed employees, 450 reported they were satisfied with the benefits package."
Inference: "90% of the surveyed employees do not want any benefits."
Answer: False
90% of employees are satisfied with the benefits package. Being satisfied with benefits clearly implies wanting them. The inference directly contradicts this.
Example 6 — Leaning Positive
Passage: "Only 10% of respondents said they used the old system last month."
Inference: "It is unlikely that many staff regularly use the old system."
Answer: Probably True
Ten percent is a small minority, making it unlikely that "many" staff use the system. The answer is Probably True rather than True because the passage refers specifically to last month — regular use could occur on a different schedule.
Common Traps in Inference Questions of Watson-Glaser critical thinking appraisal
Scope or extrapolation errors
Generalising a sample result to a broader population or context without adequate support.
Causation from sequence
Assuming A caused B simply because A happened before B.
Label confusion
Treating "Probably True" and "True" as equivalent. They are not — True requires absolute certainty from the passage.
Outside knowledge
Relying on real-world information rather than the passage itself. Base your judgement solely on what the passage states.
Negation confusion
Missing double negatives or subtle wording reversals in the inference.
Exercises: Making Inferences (Useful for Watson Glaser Test - Practice questions)
In these exercises, you'll practise judging whether an inference is True, Probably True, Insufficient Data, Probably False, or False based only on the information in the passage.
Exercise 1
Passage: "In a company-wide survey, 950 out of 1,000 employees stated they are satisfied with the new flexible working policy."
Inference: "The vast majority of employees are satisfied with the new flexible working policy."
Answer: True
The inference is directly and unambiguously supported by the passage. 950 out of 1,000 (95%) is a "vast majority."
Exercise 2
Passage: "After the city increased police patrols in the downtown area, reports of petty crime fell by 25% over the next three months."
Inference: "Increased police patrols caused the reduction in petty crime."
Answer: Insufficient Data
The passage shows correlation — patrols increased, crime fell — but does not establish causation. Other factors (seasonal variation, community initiatives, economic changes) could explain the reduction. Sequence alone does not prove cause.
Exercise 3
Passage: "In a trial of 200 users, 180 reported the updated app was easier to use."
Inference: "Most trial users found the app easier to use."
Answer: True
180 out of 200 is 90% — clearly a majority. The inference is directly and unambiguously supported.
Exercise 4
Passage: "The company has 500 branches. In two of them where the trial ran, revenue rose by 5%."
Inference: "The trial will increase revenue company-wide."
Answer: Insufficient Data
Two branches out of 500 is far too small a sample to support a company-wide conclusion. The passage provides no adequate grounds for this generalisation.
Exercise 5
Passage: "Surveys show 5% of customers complained about delivery times last month."
Inference: "It is unlikely that delivery delays are a major problem this month."
Answer: Probably True
Only 5% of customers complained — a small minority — making it unlikely that delivery delays are a major problem. The answer is Probably True rather than True because last month's data may not perfectly reflect this month's situation.
Exercise 6
Passage: "All members of the committee voted in favour."
Inference: "Every committee member supported the motion."
Answer: True
"All members voted in favour" means every single member supported the motion. The inference restates this with certainty.
Note: Watson-Glaser Inference questions test your ability to draw conclusions strictly from the information given. The skill lies in knowing when a statement follows with certainty, when it probably follows, and when the passage gives no basis for judgement.
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Download the free preview →A S Prasad
Founder, Critical Thinking Academy. Author of Critical Thinking for Watson-Glaser and lead author of Critical and Analytical Thinking (Cengage India, 2024). He has trained more than 4,000 professionals in critical thinking at organisations including Amazon and GE Healthcare, and at institutions including IIM Rohtak and IMT Ghaziabad. MBA, IIM Ahmedabad.